A detailed report published by Israel Hayom, one of Israel’s most influential national newspapers, reveals that Tel Aviv is closely monitoring the expanding Turkish military and aerospace footprint in Mogadishu, including what the report describes as a covert project to establish a long-range missile testing site along Somalia’s coastline.

Israeli Expert Sounds Alarm: "Somalia Is No Different From Iran in Distance"

In a blunt warning that has shaken regional diplomatic circles, Israeli strategic security analyst Shay Gal stated that the geographical distance between Somalia and Israel "offers no meaningful safety margin,” comparing it directly to the proximity of Iran — a country Israel has long considered a top security threat.

According to Gal, Israel’s greatest concern centers on Turkey’s Tayfun long-range missile, a powerful new system that Ankara reportedly seeks to test over the Indian Ocean. Conducting such tests from Somalia, he warned, could transform the country into a future platform capable of projecting long-range firepower that Israel cannot ignore.

"If Somalia becomes a site for missile development or testing, it will fundamentally alter Israel’s threat map,” Gal cautioned.

Mossad Expected to Increase Focus on Somalia

The Israeli report suggests that Somalia may soon become a priority intelligence target for Mossad, which is preparing to intensify surveillance of any Turkish military infrastructure or aerospace programs launched on Somali territory.

The development could spark a new era of geopolitical friction in the Horn of Africa, as Israel and Turkey — two regional powers already at odds — shift parts of their strategic competition into Somalia.

Somalia at Risk of Becoming a New Battleground for Foreign Powers

The revelations have raised strong concerns among analysts and diplomats that Somalia — a nation struggling to rebuild after decades of conflict — could become:

• A testing ground for advanced missile systems

• A strategic confrontation zone between Turkey and Israel

• A high-value target for foreign intelligence operations

• A potential hotspot for regional destabilization

Experts fear the country could be drawn into a larger geopolitical conflict with consequences far beyond its borders.

A Region Entering Dangerous New Territory

Turkey’s deepening role in Somalia — from training the national army to operating one of its largest overseas military bases — has already reshaped politics in the Horn of Africa. But Israel’s new accusation marks the most serious international warning to date about the militarization of Somalia’s coastline and the potential for the country to be used in long-range weapons testing.

Somalia now finds itself at the center of a strategic chessboard involving major regional powers whose ambitions could reshape the balance of power in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the wider Middle East.

Conclusion

Israel’s unprecedented statement signals that the Horn of Africa is entering a volatile phase. Somalia’s partnership with Turkey — long viewed as beneficial for rebuilding national security — is now being interpreted by Israel as a potential existential threat.

How the Somali government navigates this emerging crisis will determine whether the country becomes a stage for foreign rivalry or maintains control over its sovereignty and future.

By Dahir Alasow – Investigative Journalist, Waagacusub