Somalia has long been a country with political troubles. It is a widespread idea amongst political scientists that the divisions and conflicts that exist on the country are a result of the European colonization in the 19th-20th Centuries, when Somali state colonial boundaries were drawn by the colonizers. Now, some 55 years after most Somali nation gained independence, the country is experiencing a period of turmoil.

The term ‘balkanization’ is used in political science to describe a process of breaking up a territory into small, hostile states. It is derived from the events in the Balkans, which saw the splitting up of Yugoslavia into seven states, hostile to each other and resulting in a series of armed conflicts. Could this be applied to what is happening in Somalia and creation of Semi-Tribal States?

When a nation is targeted for balkanization, the justification for the overt and covert operations such a campaign entails is almost always a "humanitarian” effort to control inter-ethnic/clan strife. The media generate public confusion by fabricating, or exaggerating, terrorism, ethnic, tribal, mini-wars, often stirred up and paid for by the agents of the would-be balkanizers

The current Federal Government of Mogadishu does not have an effective institutional of cooperation between these tribal states. The next tribal constitutional federation and political system is a system of spoils, pitting each tribal state against each other for the Federal largesse. Later when a Tribal Congressman or Tribal Senator "brings home the Cadkooda,” they will judge by whether or not they can wheedle more political nominee positions coming back to their tribe than the other tribal states. Those tribal states that wouldn’t become happy for that outcome they may proclaim their independency from the federal system (secessionism). That is considered success in the prediction Balkanized Somalia of 2016.

The idea of creating Tribal Federation System seems severe destabilization of a targeted Somali nation is a logical and necessary prerequisite to balkanization. The media help to promote that destabilization by their demonization of targeted Somali unionist leaders. Such campaigns often carry overtones of ethnic persecution, along with accusations of corruption, communism, terrorism, or (but only when it suits the westerners.) fundamentalism

Whether these events of creating tribal states would be classified as an example of balkanization remains to be seen, since one cannot predict whether the new regional states would be ‘hostile’. Although this Somali Tribal Federation System does not have the aim to break up the country, it has created an aura of hostility between the tribal demarcations. One need only think back to the period 1789-1810 to see how similar events in Europe proceeded to create the modern French state.

Something should be said about the way in which a very shady draft tribal federal constitution process has furthered Somalia’s balkanization, just as it did in Yugoslavia.

The IGAD accord (Road Map of Somalia’s balkanization) was not a good deal for the Somali nation; Federal government will be forced to accede by implicit and explicit threats of even greater assistance to the tribal state rebels, and an endless war. And in consequence, a divided Somalia became an accepted, institutionalized reality, a solid line drawn through the country in every map that accompanies every news story. The tribal state negotiations, IGAD will manage stages between the Federal government and tribal states, intensifying the demands for the pullout of the Federal Authority from its political positions, neatly equating the Ethiopian, Ugandese and Kenyans invaders with the troops from different sides of Somali nation. There is no moral equivalency here…

I know of no Somali who prefers the idea of "balkanization” to defeat the Somali Union (excluding some elements from northern secessionist’s tribal politicians). Most who wish to defeat the Somali Union are using terrorism austerity, increasing the idea of breaking up the Union (Somaliland Tribal Secessionists politicians and some elements from Puntland tribal federalists politicians are for fronts of those groups).

Some of the above mentioned circles believes that if we don’t have a tribal federation system the tyranny will win everywhere in Somalia. I do not believe that tyranny will win EVERYWHERE. Once the overarching Republic Union is stripped of its power and existence, there will be a civil war between tribal Secessionists/Federalists and Somali Patriot Unionists Tribes. Please remember what happened to the Horn of Africa (Somalis in Horn of Africa) in 1950’s and later. All Somalis from Southern, Northern, NFD, Ogadenia and Djibouti organized Somali Union Movements. The prediction is after defeating Secessionist’s, tribal federalist’s ideology and IGAD/Ethiopian Road Map, those 5 regions people may recall there UNION again.

In conclusion; whether Somalia is experiencing a revolution cannot be doubted. Yet, whether this will lead to balkanization, can be. One can only hope that, if any breaking up of territories does occur, it will not have the same consequences as it did in the former Yugoslavia.

⁽¹⁾Haboon Haji Abdi: Undergraduate Student at East Africa University-Buhootle Khatumo State of Somalia