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Al-Shabab Militant Group Getting Lucky, Not Stronger in Somalia

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Thursday June 21, 2018 - 00:59:25 in Daily News by Journalist Bashiir
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    Al-Shabab Militant Group Getting Lucky, Not Stronger in Somalia

    Al-Shabab Militant Group Getting Lucky, Not Stronger in Somalia

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Al-Shabab Militant Group Getting Lucky, Not Stronger in Somalia

(Waagacusub.com) Somalia’s most dangerous terror group is likely not getting any stronger despite a series of deadly attacks, including one that claimed the life of a U.S. special operations soldier earlier this month.

The assessment, by U.S. military and counterintelligence officials, runs contrary to the conclusions of some analysts and comes as al-Shabab has been flexing its military might in recent weeks, highlighting attacks on both Somali and African Union forces.

One of the most publicized of these was a brazen June 8 attack on an outpost under construction two kilometers north of the town of Sanguni, in the Lower Jubba region of Somalia.

The al-Qaida-linked militants skirmished with a force of 800 Somali and Kenyan forces accompanied by U.S. special operations soldiers, one of whom was killed by mortar fire.

US: June 8 attack was 'lucky shot'

U.S. officials are still trying to determine the size of the al-Shabab force at the time of the attack but say there is no indication of any increased capability.

"It was a lucky shot,” a U.S. military official told VOA on condition of anonymity. "I wouldn't consider this a well-executed attack.”

Another military official said, in many ways, the deadly attack was typical of al-Shabab operations.

"Historically, al-Shabab has been willing to engage large forces, often using surprise and asymmetric tactics to improve their chances for success,” said Lt. Cmdr. Desiree Frame, a spokesperson for U.S. Africa Command. "We expect to see more conflict in southern Somalia as Somali Government Forces, AMISOM, and their partners make in-roads into al-Shabab-held territory.”

Still, accounts from Somalia indicate the al-Shabab forces were not deterred by the presence of U.S. special operations forces using armored vehicles and armed drones, as the June 8 deadly mortar strike was part of a three-day long assault on the outpost that included a failed attack using a vehicle-borne bomb.

"They know our movements,” an official with the Somali forces in Sanguni told VOA Somali. "It’s an open secret.”

Another Somali commander said al-Shabab also took advantage of the terrain, striking after recent flooding forced the Somali, Kenyan and U.S. forces to build the outpost in the open.

U.S. counterterrorism and military officials say there is no doubt the group remains the biggest threat to security in Somalia. But they have resisted attributing the increased pace of al-Shabab attacks to anything more than their annual Ramadan campaign.

"We do not assess that al-Shabab has recently increased their capabilities or their willingness to engage their enemies,” according to Africa Command’s Frame.

A senior U.S. counterterrorism official described al-Shabab’s activity as routine, noting its public statement "promote the virtue of waging jihad during Ramadan.”

Differing assessment of al-Shabab's strength

Still, some analysts warn it is wrong to downplay the strides al-Shabab has made since being kicked out of its last urban stronghold, the port city of Kismayo, in 2012.

"It’s clear that we’re not just seeing a spike in attacks related to the Ramadan campaign,” said Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "It’s clear that the organization has gotten stronger.”

And while Gartenstein-Ross thinks it is unlikely al-Shabab is strong enough to consistently challenge U.S. forces in the region, it has shown it can be potent against both Somalia and African Union forces in the area.

"They’ve been able to kill very high numbers and you didn’t see that five years ago. They’ve been able to actually overrun bases at times,” he said. "The danger is as African Union forces draw down, they may retake major urban areas. I think there’s a good chance of that.”

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The killer,the kidnapper of Somalia, entered in the US as a migrant

In July 2009, Mahad Ibrahim Hamarow kidnapped French officers Denis Allex and another officer who escaped from the Sahafi Hotel in Mogadishu and then joined Al Shabaab. In the same year, he fled to Kenya, this was confirmed by Hizbul Islam Spokesman Mr Aydarus. - In 2010, Mahad Hamarow went to South Africa for migration, that's how we found out in the investigation, we were also told by Mohamed Isse and his brother Somaney who lives in Johannesburg South Africa.

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President HSM's Proclamation to Defeat Al-Shabab by Force in Somalia To overcome the complex problems of civil war, state fragility, and underdevelopment, the Somali people supported risky political changes for a government that promotes freedom, justice, peace, and prosperity in Somalia. For example, the Islamic movements enjoyed popular support to end the brutal reigns of warlords and the military occupation of Ethiopia and establish new government.

Somalia:$17 million external support has not been channeled through the country's single treasury account

Waagacusub.net -Auditor General Mohamed Ali alias Afgoi has exposed missing millions of dollars from key departments within the Federal Government of Somalia [FGS], in what could raise questions about government expenditures. In his report, Afgoi said 25 entities and three embassies have been audited. Unsupported expenditure amounts to $9M; contracts worth $31M not registered with auditor general's office, the existence of unauthorized bank accounts outside the Treasury Single Account.

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Waagacusub.net - IBS Bank Somalia, which is believed to have the largest amount of money, Al-Qaeda Finance Secretary Fazul Abdallah from Comoros has started issuing Visa Card Payments for the first time. Al-Shabaab's finance secretary confirmed that Mohamed Ali Warsame had $ 157 million in cash, according to Khalif Ereg, who was later bribed with $ 2 million.

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