A significant majority of Somalis favor a federal system of governance, despite serious misgivings. This is according to a research project concluded by HIPS that spun across 5 major cities in Somalia.The majority of those surveyed consider federalism as the best way to achieve a power-sharing mechanism among Somali clans whereas a vertical system of governance with a highly centralized unitary state is seen as inherently undemocratic and oppressive. People demand horizontal power structures where they can retain a fair degree of influence at the local level.
• The majority of those surveyed view federalism as the most suitable form of governance to decentralize
Somalia, because it facilitates reasonable power sharing among clans, enables regional autonomy and ultimately
leads to a reduction of conflict.
• A substantial majority still views the current federation process as deeply flawed, because it is a largely elitedriven and externally facilitated scheme that promotes clan identity at the expense of citizenship.
• Social reconciliation was identified as a prerequisite for a successful implementation of federalism in
Somalia.
• Despite significant support for a federal form of governance, the Somali people’s understanding on the
intricate and the nuanced nature of federalism remains extremely low. This highlights the need for a robust civic
education campaign.
Key Messages
Background
Talk of federalism in Somalia dates back to before
independence, but the current discussion has its roots in
the early 1990s. Federalism was formally enshrined in the
Somali constitution in 2004 during the Embagathi Peace
Process in Kenya that created the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG), which paved the way for the current
Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).
Despite the Provisional Constitution’s aspirations for a
federal Somalia, successive governments since 2004 have
failed to implement it, mainly because their writ barely
extended beyond the capital Mogadishu. Only after the
election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in
September 2012 did practical implementation start in
earnest. But even then, the process was haphazard and
not always consistent with the Provisional Constitution.
Among other things, the Provisional Constitution
mandates that two or more (pre-1991) regions join
voluntarily to form a federal state. Furthermore, it calls
for the formation of a Boundaries and Federation
Commission (BFC), an independent body tasked with
assessing the legality and viability of new states before
certifying them. Both of these constitutionally mandated
requirements were ignored in the current processes.
The exception is Puntland, which predates the current
dispensation. Formed in 1998 in northeastern Somalia,
the region is widely considered to be the first federal state.
It has been a staunch advocate for a federal system of
governance since it’s founding. Puntland played a key role
in drafting the current Provisional Constitution during
the Garowe I and Garowe II conferences in 2012.
Puntland spans five regions, though it does not fully
control all of them. Bari and Nugaal are wholly under its
domain while portions of Sool, Sanaag and Mudug are
controlled by other entities.
The next major attempt was Jubbaland. In May 2013,
politicians from the Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba and Gedo
regions gathered in the recently captured coastal city of
Kismayo and unilaterally declared Jubbaland as a new
federal member state with a strong backing from Kenya,
which had some 4,000 troops deployed in the city.
Delegates at the conference declared Ahmed Mohamed
Islaan (Madoobe) as the president of Jubbaland.
That didn’t sit well with the FGS in Mogadishu, which
immediately rejected this entity, asserting that the process
was unconstitutional, because it was neither inclusive of all
clans in the region nor transparent. Furthermore, the
federal government alleged that its constitutional role to
form federal states was deprived.
What followed was a deadly conflict between supporters of
the new administration and opponents backed by the FGS.
After five violent months, Ethiopia brokered a deal that
saw the formation of the Interim Jubba Administration
(IJA), a midway arrangement that would put the IJA on
constitutional path to become a fully-fledged federal
member state. Nearly a year and half later, much of what
was agreed, including a joint control over key revenue
generating sources (seaport and airport), has not been
implemented.
While the IJA was struggling to obtain legal status as a
federal member state, another process was beginning in
Baidoa in mid 2014. Political elites there convened a
delegation of traditional elders from the Bay, Bakool and
Lower Shabelle regions with the aim of forming their own
02 | 2015
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Policy Studies is an
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in Mogadishu, Somalia.
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6be implemented, but how best to do so in a way that reduces conflict,
enhances social cohesion and ultimately leads to stable and
democratic governance.
Of those who favor federalism, one in four respondents (24 percent)
said it advances power sharing, which is at the heart of Somalia’s 24-
yearconflict. A further 23 percent believe it would create regional
autonomy—a key demand for many Somalis. Fifteen percent view
federalism as a vital tool for conflict resolution.
Regional nuances
Despite overall support for a federal system of governance across the
five cities, there were noticeable differences with some cities more
enthusiastic about federalism than others.
Kismayo
Participants in Kismayo were by far the most supportive with 88
percent of those surveyed saying a federal system is a perfect fit for
Somalia. Of those, 29 percent said it is a vital way to reduce conflict.
This was hardly surprising as Kismayo, the country’s third-largest
city, has been contested since 1991 and many consider federalism as a
necessity to mitigate long-standing conflicts.
Like many respondents across the country, regional autonomy was an
important aspiration for the Kismayo participants. Almost one in
four(24 percent) said a federal system of governance enhances local
control of politics and resources, while 26 percent said federalism
offers a coherent powersharing mechanism among key stakeholders.
Kismayo respondents were equally enthusiastic about the ongoing
federation process, which nearly 60 percent supported. It is the only
city where a plurality of participants favored the process. Other
participants were deeply unsatisfied.
Garowe
Participants in Garowe were the second most supportive of
federalism. A significant majority(69 percent) said a federal form of
governance was crucial for Somalia to reemerge from over two
decades of state collapse. A further 78 percent said federalism was a
state. As the Kismayo process was designed to produce a
predetermined result, the IJA, the outcome of the Baidoa conference
was also a fait accompli. In November 2014, the delegates selected
Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, an MP and a former speaker of the federal
parliament, as the new president of the Interim Southwest
Administration (ISA). The international community, which funded the
Baidoa process, unanimously hailed the outcome as a major
accomplishment and step towards the consolidation of the federation
process.
Preparations are now underway for another federal entity in central
Somalia. In theory, it would encompass the Galgaduud and Mudug
regions, though northern Mudug is likely to remain under Puntland’s
domain as it has been since 1998. The technical committee tasked with
preparing for the formation of this state has declared that Adaado will
host the conference that will eventually produce an administration.
All of these activities happened without the constitutionally mandated
Boundaries and Federation Commission (BFC). In December 2014, the
federal parliament endorsed legislation establishing the BFC, though
commissioners have yet to be appointed, and a budget has not been
agreed. In theory, the BFC will have to retroactively assess the legality
and viability of the emerging states.
Methodology
Given the overall absence of reliable data and the desperate need for
evidence-based decision making in Somalia, we undertook this
research to fill in the existing gaps in understanding, to raise
awareness and to inform policy.
A total of 213 people were surveyed at events organized by HIPS in five
cities: Mogadishu, Baidoa, Kismayo, Galkayo and Garowe. The
participants were diverse in terms of gender, age and profession,
though a slight majority (38 percent) worked in the NGO and public
sectors and 17 percent were students. Almost half (49 percent) had a
high school diploma and 17 percent were university graduates.
The events started with a brief presentation of our February 2014
paper, Decentralization Options for Somalia, which was followed by a
group discussion. Participants were then asked to fill in a survey
comprising nine questions. In addition to collecting demographic
data, each question was designed to help researchers understand the
different dimensions of the federalism process.
There were a number of limitations in our methodology. First, some
participants had preconceived perceptions about HIPS. This was
particularly acute in Garowe where HIPS is seen as an entity that
promotes a centralized form of governance and a close ally of the
federal government, neither of which is accurate. Second, and as a
result of this perception, some participants didn’t fill out the survey,
impacting the overall sample size. Third, it has been argued that
providing information before a survey can influence participants’
responses. Although this might be the case, the survey asks whether
our presentation and subsequent discussion improved participants’
level of understanding of federalism, which73 percent said it did.
Fourth, we were unable to travel to Beledweyn, a city that was on our
itinerary, for security and practical reasons.
Federal Somalia: Not if but how
That a significant majority (68 percent) of those surveyed across five
diverse cities support a federal system of governance is by far the
clearest sign that the question shouldn’t be whether federalism should
2 Heritage Institute for Policy Studiessuitable system. A noticeable nine percent favored the most
decentralized confederation form of governance. To an extent, this is
an approval of the de facto relationship between Puntland and the
federal government. Puntland currently runs its affairs with little or
no oversight by the FGS in Mogadishu and is by far the most
successful autonomous entity.
The desire for more decentralization could also be a reflection of the
deep mistrust of the federal government expressed by the Garowe
participants during discussions. Of the 78 percent who supported
federalism,31 percent said it was suitable for Somalia, because it
enhances regional autonomy. Nearly a quarter (22 percent) said it
promotes power sharing and another 22 percent believe it reduces
conflict among communities.
Baidoa
Baidoa is the capital of Bay region and one of the largest cities in
southwestern Somalia. It is the political and economic capital of the
Interim Southwest Administration (the official capital is the coastal
town of Baraawe, but the administration continues to operate from
Baidoa for practical reasons). Residents have suffered tremendously
from the civil war and subsequent conflicts. In 1992, it was dubbed
"death city”, because famine was killing around 500 people a day.
Similarly in 2011, when famine claimed the life of 268,000 lives in
Somalia, according to the UN, a disproportionate number of those
were from the southwest.
This region is the birthplace of federalism in Somalia. As far back as
1947, elites from the region were calling for a federal system of
governance—a view widely ridiculed as unpatriotic in those days.
Their aspiration for federalism stemmed from the fact that the
inhabitants speak a separate Somali dialect known as Maay and were
suspicious of the domination of certain clans who speak the majority
Maxaa dialect of the SYL ruling party.
Three out of four (75 percent) respondents said federalism is the best
decentralization option for Somalia. Forty percent linked it to regional
autonomy—the highest score of all five cities. This was no surprise,
considering the historic marginalization of these communities since
independence. Therefore, strong desire for regional autonomy is
predictable.
That said, a significant majority (75 percent) of the respondents said
they were dissatisfied with the ongoing federation process. Nearly half
(46 percent)linked their dissatisfaction with what they perceived as a
top down, elite-driven process that systemically excludes communities
from consultations and decision making.
Mogadishu
Participants from the capital defied stereotypical perceptions. It’s
widely believed that the people of Mogadishu are mostly anti-federal,
but a significant majority (73 percent) said federalism is the most
suitable form of governance for Somalia. This could be an indication
of shifting views among the residents of the capital and resignation to
the reality that federalism is a fait accompli for Somalia.
As with other cities, the majority (56 percent) considered the current
federation process flawed, because it lacks transparency and
inclusivity.
Galkayo (Galmudug)
Galkayo is a divided city. Puntland controls the northern part while
Galmudug controls the south where we conducted our survey. The
division, which dates back to the early days of the civil war, is so deep
that most people don’t cross the invisible borderline. The two main
communities eventually agreed a landmark peace deal in 1993, which
has withstood for over 20 years.
Participants of south Galkayo were by far the most anti-federal. Fifty
eight percent said it is unsuitable for Somalia. One in four(25 percent)
said federalism would spark renewed clan conflicts. A further nine
percent believe that federalism is a threat to national unity.
A possible silver lining was that 46 percent of the respondents said a
devolution form of governance was the best for Somalia. Political
scientists say devolution (also known as a decentralized unitary state)
is the weakest form of federalism, with the central government still
retaining substantial powers. Kenya has recently adopted such a
system.
Dissatisfaction with the current federation process was the second
highest (65 percent) in south Galkayo. This is very consistent with the
overall attitudes towards federalism in this part of Galkayo.
A significant number of participants noted that social reconciliation is
a prerequisite to a successful implementation of federalism in
Somalia. Many said the deep wounds of the civil war remain unhealed.
Conclusion
This study reveals that a significant majority of Somalis favor a federal
system of governance, despite serious misgivings. The majority of
those surveyed consider federalism as the best way to achieve a
power-sharing mechanism among Somali clans. A vertical system of
governance with a highly centralized unitary state is seen as
inherently undemocratic and oppressive. People demand horizontal
power structures where they can retain a fair degree of influence at
the local level.
Implementation of federalism is already underway. The majority of
participants, however, view the current process as chaotic with the
potential to trigger more conflict. Due process and constitutional
mandates have been ignored and the focus has shifted away from
doing it right, to doing it for the sake of influencing the outcome of
the political dispensation in 2016.
Regional autonomy has also emerged as a major demand for Somalis
across the country. Most participants desired a federal system,
because it would give their local government greater autonomy. With
regional autonomy comes local control of power and resources (at
least in theory). In practice, leaders of existing and emerging states
tightly control all facets of governance, including the appointment of
district commissioners and directors of departments.
Another major finding is the connection participants made between
federalism and conflict resolution. Their claim is that, with devolved
power and resources, there will be much less conflict and more
cooperation or space between communities. Again, this is easier said
than done, but the fact that more than a third of respondents make
the association is crucial.
One of the most surprising outcomes of this study is the desire for
social reconciliation across Somalia. From Kismayo on the far
southern tip of the country to Garowe in the northeast, participants
highlighted the need for direct, community-to-community
reconciliation. It was abundantly clear that what people wanted was
not political accommodation but genuine national recognition that
heals the scars of the civil war.
3 Heritage Institute for Policy StudiesReaders are encouraged to reproduce material for their own publications, as long as
they are not being sold commercially. As copyright holder, the Heritage Institute for
Policy Studies requests due acknowledgement and a copy of the publication. For online
use, we ask readers to link to the original resource on the HIPS website.
© Heritage Institute for Policy Studies 2014. This work is licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution-NonCommercial Licence (CC BY-NC 3.0).
Federal Somalia: Not If but How
Notes
1. See "Decentralization options for Somalia” by Dr. Afyare
Elmi.February 2014. http://www.heritageinstitute.org/wp-content/
uploads/2014/01/Decentralization_Options_for_Somalia-ENGLISH.pdf
2. The Embagathi Peace Process was a national reconciliation
conference held in Kenya from 2002-2004 under the stewardship of
IGAD. With the backing of neighboring states, warlords dominated the
conference and eventually elected a former warlord, Abdullahi Yusuf, as
the president of the TFG in 2004.
3. The 2012 Garowe I & Garowe II conferences were part of a series of
UN-facilitated meetings among key stakeholders. One of their
outcomes was the Provisional Constitution.
4. Somaliland controls parts of Sool and Sanaag. Khaatumo (a new
entity) is also active in parts of Sool. Galmudug controls southern
Mudug, including the southern part of Galkayo.
5. "Are Kenyans seeking a buffer zone in Somalia?” http://
www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-15499534
6. "Somalia Government and Jubbaland Strike a Peace Deal” http://
www.africareview.com/News/Somali-government-and-Jubalandstrike-a-deal/-/979180/1972618/-/r1t3s6z/-/index.html
Finally, the need for civic education was all too evident. More than 70
percent of respondents said they learned more about federalism
during the course of our presentations and discussions. Many
admitted that demagoguery has overtaken reason and evidencebased discourse.
Policy considerations
Federalism is a complex and multi-layered system of governance. Yet
it is both a constitutional mandate and a reality on the ground today.
Policymakers would be well advised to consider the following as the
process takes twists and turns.
First, the Boundaries and Federation Commission should be
established as soon as possible. It is encouraging that legislation for
the BFC was recently passed by parliament. A competent team must
be formed to undertake this momentous task. But that’s the easiest
part. The BFC would need legal, financial and political backing to
undertake its responsibility effectively and professionally. A key
priority for the BFC should be to travel around the country and listen
to the demands of citizens, all the while considering the legal and
economic viabilities of existing emerging states. The BFC would
undoubtedly face tremendous challenges, including from these
states, but it must remain firm and remember its mission.
Second, the Interstate Commission should also be established
without delay. As imagined in Vision 2016, this commission would
become an inclusive platform for existing and emerging states to
discuss their issues and explore organic solutions together. Many
states share boundaries and even cities in some cases. Others share
resources. Only they can solve their issues among themselves.
Third, social reconciliation is crucial. Civil war wounds have not been
properly healed. In some cases, assets such as real estate and farms
are unjustly held. This is unacceptable and remains a major roadblock
to genuine reconciliation. Vision 2016 calls for the formation of a
Truth and Reconciliation Commission. A commission comprised of
individuals of national standing would go far to heal wounds and
ultimately bring about closure for most people.
Fourth, a robust civic education campaign is needed. Federalism is
deeply misunderstood. Even those who vigorously support it have
their own interpretations, including the widely held view that it
means total autonomy for their clans. Those who oppose federalism
view it as a tool to divide Somalia and as an externally imposed
arrangement. Both sides should be helped to understand the nuanced
and complex nature of federalism.
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Federal Somalia: Not If but How
A significant majority of Somalis favor a federal system of governance, despite serious misgivings. This is according to a research project concluded by HIPS that spun across 5 major cities in Somalia.The majority of those surveyed consider federali