HEADLINES:

Somalia: Incumbent Leaders Perfected the Manipulation Tactics of 2016 Elections

0
Tuesday July 05, 2016 - 18:07:10 in Articles by Super Admin
  • Visits: 4097
  • (Rating 5.0/5 Stars) Total Votes: 1
  • 1 0
  • Share via Social Media

    Somalia: Incumbent Leaders Perfected the Manipulation Tactics of 2016 Elections

    The 5 Presidents, the Speaker of a defunct federal parliament, the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of a moribund Council of Ministers, who form Somalia's National Leadership Forum (NLF), are not offended by the defenestration of the Som

    Share on Twitter Share on facebook Share on Digg Share on Stumbleupon Share on Delicious Share on Google Plus

The 5 Presidents, the Speaker of a defunct federal parliament, the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of a moribund Council of Ministers, who form Somalia's National Leadership Forum (NLF), are not offended by the defenestration of the Somali Constitution and not embarrassed by the conflict of interests for being candidates and at the same time authors of the 2016 electoral rules.

 The leaders of the Forum forgot that a free, fair, and transparent political election is the cornerstone of the Somali State building.

The international community formed the NLF to bypass the self-destructed and delegitimized federal institutions of parliament and Council of Ministers for corruption and inefficiency and to create an image of unified governing of Somalia as an alternative. Unfortunately, the apparent shared interest of the members of the NLF is to establish and consolidate multiple unaccountable one-man rule systems of governance in Somalia, far from the popular aspiration for effective national democratic system of governance. 

Under the constant pressure of the international community, the NLF held several meetings to set biased rules for the 2016 election. The series of decisions issued so far are repetitive, disorganized, ill-timed, unfinished, and in contradiction with the provisions of the provisional constitution. There are no judicial or other institutions responsible for the enforcement of the electoral rules. The public expresses serious doubt and disappointment about the substance, clarity, and observance of those decisions. 

To increase the chances for electoral manipulations and public division for political gains, the NLF deviated from a clean electoral process that unites, empowers, and guides the 4.5 clans for choosing their legitimate representatives in free, fair, and transparent manner and devised a complicated electoral process controlled by them. The members of the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) and State-Levels Electoral Implementation Teams (SEIT) are reverent to their appointees. 

In the context of regional states representing mostly one city ruled by one president, of one state yet to emerge, of one breakaway state, and of Benadir region under the authority of the federal President, the NLF distributed the 275 members of the Lower House (MP-LH) and the 54 members of the Upper House (MP-UH) of the federal parliament to six Regional Administrations and Benadir region: (1) Puntland got 40 MP-LH and 11 MP-UH; (2) Jubbaland got 39 MP-LH and 8 MP-UH; (3) Southwest got 69 MP-LH and 8 MP-UH; (4) Galmudug got 36 MP-LH and 8 MP-UH; (5) Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions (emerging state) got 37  MP-LH and 8 MP-UH; (6) Somaliland got 47 MP-LH and 11 MP-UH; (7) Benadir region got 7 MP-LH. The Forum made the disclaimer that the distribution of seats to the various regional states will not have any bearing on the 2020 constituency based one person and one vote election. 

Subsequently, the NLF increased the 54 seats of the Upper House by adding 2 seats allocated to the Benadiri Community in Mogadishu. It also transferred 3 seats of Lower House from Puntland to Jubbaland regional state.  The NLF did not provide explanation for the change but it highlights the underlying territorial claims of clans in relation to clan based federal system.  

For the difference of conditions between the various regional states-cum-administrations and regions, the incumbent leaders have wide latitude to manipulate the outcomes of the electoral process. Particularly, the electoral process for the MPs of the Upper House is flawed and unfair.

Shortly before the NLF meeting held in Baidoa on June 22-25 2016, the president of the federal government issued an order (not decree for lack of legal basis) concerning the appointment of members of the FEIT which included Ministers and officials working for NLF leaders. One observer asked about his opinion on the list joked that he was surprised by the fact that the names of the three top leaders of the federal government were not in the list.  This suggests how the people gave up the hope of having free and fair election in 2016 under the current regime.

When the international community rejected the FEIT list for the improper inclusion of Ministers and loyalists, the NLF replaced the ministers with officials from their offices, which again undercuts the principal of independence and credibility of the electoral body. The majority of the electoral officials are vulnerable to the influences of their bosses who control their benefits and future expectations or they are known partisans in their communities.  

In addition, the NLF approved an amended 2012 list of 135 traditional leaders (TL) who selected the members of federal parliament. In contrast to the 2012 TL, the 2016 TL will validate the list of 275 Electoral Colleges of 51 voters each. The list of electoral voters will be submitted to the FEIT and SEIT for casting the delegated votes in accordance with secret ballots. Voters will vote to the candidates to the lower house of the federal parliament. 

The NFL did not explain the criteria for the amendment of 2012 list. But, circulated information affirmed that the NLF leaders agreed to replace only the traditional leaders who passed away and to leave the rest unchanged. However, the published list indicate that some traditional leaders who did not pass away but considered not loyal to NLF leaders were replaced with loyal ones, while new legitimate TL seen as disloyal were denied to be included. 

This selective replacements have proved once again that the leaders of NLF are determined to perfect the 2016 electoral manipulation. The control of FEIT and SEIT and TL facilitates institutional manipulation which is more effective and less cost for electoral gain. 

The NLF decisions and steps have progressively perfected the manipulation tactics of 2016 election. The international community as an advocate and arbiter of free, fair, and transparent election process seems unable to match the electoral rules with the guiding principles agreed upon for electoral integrity. 

According to studies on electoral manipulations and frauds, incumbent political leaders engage in three different tactics of electoral manipulations for political gains. The three tactics are institutional manipulations, coercion, and co-optation. 

The institutional manipulation comes under the form of exclusion of contenders, secret or fraudulent selection of the electoral colleges and misuse of electoral management bodies and judicial system. The coercion comes under the forms of use of security forces for arrests, intimidation, harassment, and restriction of public gathering of opposition supporters, prohibition of campaign posters, and repression of free press. The co-optation comes under the form of vote buying and other types of corruption with the use of public resources and powers. 

The studies found that in authoritarian and fragile regimes where the rule of law is weaker, the government bureaucracy is more vulnerable to the incumbents’ will and influences. Furthermore, weaker incumbents usually use repression and intimidation, while stronger incumbents facing competition prefer to use bribery or ballot fraud. In general, the behavior of the Somali incumbent leaders exemplifies the findings of the studies on electoral manipulation.

The Somali incumbent leaders are less inclined to improve the integrity of 2016 election. Therefore, it is more likely that the integrity of 2016 election will be worse than the one of 2012 when the signature of one traditional leader was sufficient for becoming a member of the federal parliament. Independent and impartial behavior of FEIT and SEIT, credible selection process of the Electoral Colleges, and control of corruption and sanctions are crucial for peaceful and acceptable election results.

Mr. Mohamud M Uluso

[email protected]

Share on Social Media

Somalia:Social media shut down over exam leakages unjustified

Responding to reports that Somalia's education minister has announced that social media may be shut down for five days from 27 to 31 May as one of the ways to stop cheating in the national secondary school exams, Amnesty International's Deputy Regional Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes Seif Magango said: Full Article

 

Somalia:Mogadishu has fallen back into the hands of terrorists

Waagacusub.com - Huge explosions have rocket the Somali capital. They became incontrollable, as they occur at least twice, while targeting government officials and their offices. Al Shabab terrorists seem to be recapturing the control of Mogadishu after the government troops and police vacated their bases in the front lines in lower and middle Shabelle regions. Full Article

 

Leadership Crisis Caused Freeze of Statebuilding Efforts in Somalia

Waagacusub.net - Somalia is mired in out of control political and security situation created by broken electoral promises, egregious abuses, and foreign policy blunders committed by the federal government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo. The Gulf crisis, the moratorium of the Federal Member States (FMS), and the surrender to the manipulations of divide and rule of Ethiopia have elevated public pessimism and stoked intense acrimony between federal and state leaders, which have exacerbated Somalia's vulnerability and relapse into chaos. Federal Government could soon be isolated for directionless. Full Article

 

Somalia: Two people hurt in bomb attack in Baidoa

Somalia: Two people hurt in bomb attack in Baidoa Full Article

 

Somalia leaders urged to stop regional affairs interference

Somalia leaders urged to stop regional affairs interference Full Article

 

Ethiopian, Eritrean Leaders Sign Peace Agreement In Saudi Arabia

Ethiopian, Eritrean Leaders Sign Peace Agreement In Saudi Arabia Full Article

 

Regional Leaders Set Conditions For Meeting Farmaajo

Regional Leaders Set Conditions For Meeting Farmaajo Full Article

 

Somalia: Roadside blast hits AU troops in Janaale town

Somalia: Roadside blast hits AU troops in Janaale town Full Article

 

Somalia: Al-Shabaab attacks hotel in Barawe

Somalia: Al-Shabaab attacks hotel in Barawe Full Article

 

Somalia: AU forces clash with Al-Shabaab

Somalia: AU forces clash with Al-Shabaab Full Article

 


Leave a comment

  Tip

  Tip

  Tip

  Tip

  Tip


Somali Officials Misrepresent IMF Statements and Reports

Somalia suffers from the disgraceful culture of leaders and politicians invoking deceptively legitimate documents like the Provisional Constitution for bolstering false claims and arguments or for obfuscating critical search for truth. That culture has undermined the requirement of truth, good faith, and accountability in the public life and dashed the public hope for democratic state of Somalia governed by the rule of law and democratic values.

Somalia:Terrorists receive 52 million dollars in Mogadishu annually.

Waagacusub.net - It has been known that Al-Shabab receives 52 Million dollars annually from Mogadishu. It gets from commercial companies, and public as taxes (zakawat)

Chinese oil companies behind unlawful "extradition" of a Somali to Ethiopia

Waagacusub.net - A Chinese oil company was involved in the smuggling of a former Somali rebel officer, Colonel Abdikariim Sheikh Muse, to Ethiopia because his organization of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) was against oil and mineral exploration in Ogaden of the southeastern Ethiopia by China.

Journalist Alasow "Somalische Minister houdt Amsterdamse rechter vals bewijs Voor"

Volgens de rechter zou de minister hebben aangetoond dat afpersingspraktijken van Somalische journalisten een bekend probleem zijn en stelde de bewindsman daarmee een ernstige misstand aan de kaak. Dat is een kwestie van algemeen belang en de minister moet daarover in de openbaarheid kunnen treden, overwoog de rechter.

Somalia:List Document retrieved from house of AlShabaab leader

Waagacusub.net– An American unmanned drone launched a missile attack on one of Alshabab's most cold-blooded leaders on Sunday, 30 July 2017 in southern Somalia. The drove attack killed a man, who is dubbed the cruelest terror mastermind in the Mogadishu's history.

Somalia:Social media shut down over exam leakages unjustified

Responding to reports that Somalia's education minister has announced that social media may be shut down for five days from 27 to 31 May as one of the ways to stop cheating in the national secondary school exams, Amnesty International's Deputy Regional Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes Seif Magango said: Full Article

 

UNDP sanctions 18 Somali entities and individuals over graft, collusion and fraud

The UN Development Programme has blacklisted 18 Somali individuals and organisations from conducting any business with the UN agency over what it termed as their 'engagement in proscribed practices'. Full Article

 

Somalia:Mogadishu has fallen back into the hands of terrorists

Waagacusub.com - Huge explosions have rocket the Somali capital. They became incontrollable, as they occur at least twice, while targeting government officials and their offices. Al Shabab terrorists seem to be recapturing the control of Mogadishu after the government troops and police vacated their bases in the front lines in lower and middle Shabelle regions. Full Article

 

CORRECTION: Mr ABDIRAHMAN OMAR OSMAN

In multiple publications on this website I have deliberately associated Mr. Abdirahman Omar Osman with rape, impregnating of a Somali girl, murder and violence and fraud. Full Article

 

Somali Officials Misrepresent IMF Statements and Reports

Somalia suffers from the disgraceful culture of leaders and politicians invoking deceptively legitimate documents like the Provisional Constitution for bolstering false claims and arguments or for obfuscating critical search for truth. That culture has undermined the requirement of truth, good faith, and accountability in the public life and dashed the public hope for democratic state of Somalia governed by the rule of law and democratic values. Full Article

 

Former Intel official stripped from NISA membership

Former Intel official stripped from NISA membership Full Article

 

PM KHEYRE USELESS AND COSTY OVERSEAS TRIPS.

PM KHEYRE USELESS AND COSTY OVERSEAS TRIPS. Full Article

 

Abiy says 'New Year' will be celebrated in Eritrea, Ethiopian Airlines to resume flights

Abiy says 'New Year' will be celebrated in Eritrea, Ethiopian Airlines to resume flights Full Article

 

Massive rise in Islamist militant attacks in Africa

Massive rise in Islamist militant attacks in Africa Full Article

 

Argentina Cancels Israel Match After Messi Protests Over Palestinian Killings

Argentina Cancels Israel Match After Messi Protests Over Palestinian Killings Full Article