Ethiopia is confronting its most dangerous northern military escalation since the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, as renewed fighting spreads across Tigray, Amhara and Afar and raises fears that a country still carrying the scars of its last devastating war could be sliding toward another major conflict.

The latest confrontation erupted on September 22 between Ethiopian federal forces and forces aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), following weeks of mounting tension, reported drone strikes and military clashes.

The escalation has already moved beyond isolated battlefield incidents.

Tigrayan forces have taken control of the airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire, disrupting civilian aviation and prompting serious concern from the African Union and European Union.

The African Union said the seizure and occupation of the three civilian airports was inconsistent with commitments under the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and warned that the development could reverse years of fragile progress toward peace.

The AU also reported the detention of federal personnel and escalating hostilities in South Tigray and Afar, while calling for an immediate halt to actions that could further widen the conflict.

Fear Returns to Tigray

Inside Tigray, the fear of another prolonged war is already affecting daily life.

Residents have begun stocking food, withdrawing cash and securing basic supplies as fears grow that renewed hostilities could once again isolate the region and disrupt transport and essential services.

The anxiety carries particular weight because northern Ethiopia has not recovered fully from the 2020–2022 conflict, which devastated communities and was accompanied by grave violations against civilians.

Human Rights Watch warned on Thursday that the latest fighting could expose civilians to renewed abuses.

"The new hostilities in northern Ethiopia raise fears that civilians will face further abuses given the warring parties’ past atrocities and ongoing impunity,” said Laetitia Bader, Human Rights Watch's deputy Africa director.

HRW called on all parties to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure and urged international actors to support robust monitoring of the conduct of the warring sides.

Pretoria Peace Deal Under Severe Pressure

At the centre of the crisis is the Pretoria Agreement, signed by the Ethiopian government and TPLF on November 2, 2022, under African Union mediation.

The agreement brought an end to large-scale fighting, but several fundamental disputes remained unresolved.

Questions involving contested territories, displaced communities, disarmament, political authority and implementation of the agreement have continued to strain relations between Addis Ababa and Tigray.

Those tensions have intensified during 2026.

In May, the TPLF reasserted control over Tigray's political administration. Human Rights Watch has separately documented forced recruitment by Tigrayan authorities, including allegations involving children, while the Ethiopian military has conducted drone strikes against Tigrayan forces in recent months.

Both sides have accused the other of undermining the peace process.

That competing narrative remains important: responsibility for initiating particular rounds of fighting is disputed, and independent access to some conflict areas remains limited.

A Wider Ethiopian Crisis

The renewed Tigray fighting is unfolding against an even broader political and security crisis.

Just days before the latest escalation, seven Ethiopian armed groups announced the creation of a new anti-government alliance.

The coalition includes the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement — forces that were on opposing sides during the 2020–2022 Tigray war.

It also includes armed groups from Oromia, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz.

Their cooperation illustrates how dramatically Ethiopia's conflict landscape has changed since the Pretoria agreement.

The federal government has accused members of the alliance of receiving support from neighbouring Eritrea. Eritrea has previously denied similar allegations.

The emergence of the alliance, combined with fighting across several regions, adds another layer of uncertainty to a country already dealing with multiple armed conflicts and deep political divisions.

EU Warns Against Military Solution

The European Union said on September 23 that it was "deeply concerned” by the rapidly deteriorating security situation.

The EU specifically cited the takeover of the three Tigray airports and several drone strikes carried out by the Ethiopian National Defence Force during recent weeks.

Brussels called for immediate de-escalation and renewed commitment to the cessation-of-hostilities agreement.

The EU also stressed that international humanitarian law must be respected, including the protection of civilians and humanitarian operations.

The African Union has meanwhile asked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, its High Representative for the Horn of Africa, to urgently engage the parties and support renewed diplomatic efforts.

Civilians Could Again Pay the Highest Price

Behind the military manoeuvres lies the central danger confronting northern Ethiopia: civilians who survived one catastrophic conflict may again find themselves trapped between armed forces.

Tigray is already dealing with drought and substantial humanitarian needs. Renewed fighting risks disrupting roads, aviation, humanitarian access, markets and essential services.

The capture of airports, drone operations and expansion of hostilities into neighbouring regions indicate that the confrontation can no longer be treated merely as a local political dispute inside Tigray.

What remains uncertain is whether the parties will contain the escalation or allow the confrontation to develop into sustained warfare.

For Ethiopia, the diplomatic window has narrowed considerably.

The Pretoria Agreement remains formally in place, but developments on the ground are placing its central promise — that political disputes would no longer be settled through large-scale warfare — under its most serious test yet.

For millions of civilians across northern Ethiopia, the consequences of its failure could be devastating.

By Dahir Alasow
Waagacusub.net
NAIROBI | September 24, 2026

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