Somalia is heading toward one of its most consequential political tests as the 2026 mandate cycle draws closer, with rising disputes over who has the constitutional authority to run elections — the Federal Government in Mogadishu or the Federal Member States (FMS). Hidden beneath technical legal debates are deep power struggles that may determine the future of Somalia's federal system. The decisions taken in the next months will shape not only how elections are run, but who controls political legitimacy and state power in the coming decade.

Two competing election visions

Somalia now faces two fundamentally different visions:

The 2023 NCC agreement — signed by all except Puntland — pushed Somalia toward one synchronized election timetable for federal and state levels. Supporters say the move will end political uncertainty. Critics warn it will weaken federalism and empower Mogadishu at the expense of the states.

Why 2026 is a make-or-break moment

Several factors will collide in 2026:

• Constitutional amendments that have not been fully accepted by all FMS

• Lack of clarity on election management under the provisional charter

• Growing mistrust between federal and state political elites

• Pressure from international partners for direct elections

• Rising security concerns linked to Al-Shabaab and clan conflicts

If political agreement is not reached, analysts warn that the election dispute could expand into a broader institutional crisis, similar to moments of political deadlock seen in previous mandate cycles.

Behind the scenes: political calculations

The push for unified elections is widely interpreted as an attempt by the federal government to:

• Control who enters state leadership

• Shape future political coalitions

• Influence security and economic policy at the state level

Meanwhile, states that oppose centralization argue that autonomous elections are the only safeguard against a return to excessive presidential power in Mogadishu.

A senior political source told Waagacusub:

"This is no longer about election timing — it is about who controls the balance of power in Somalia.”

Is Somalia ready for direct voting?

The ambition for universal suffrage remains popular among citizens — but experts highlight major challenges:

• No verified population database

• No national voter registry

• Unequal security conditions across states

• Electoral institutions still weak and politicized

Without broad agreement, direct elections risk becoming another source of instability rather than a step toward democracy.

What path forward?

For 2026 to be peaceful, Somalia requires:

Political consensus — not legal force
Full participation of all FMS, including Puntland
Neutral, trusted election institutions
Security planning independent of political interference

Somalia has a historic opportunity to move toward predictable, democratic governance — but only if elections become a shared national project rather than a battlefield of political competition.

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© Waagacusub.net – Investigative Reporting by Dahir Alasow