The International Crisis Group (ICG) has urged the European Union (EU) to play a more proactive role in ending Somalia's escalating political standoff, warning that prolonged instability could undo years of fragile progress and allow Al-Shabab to regain strength.

In a report released on October 16, the Brussels-based think tank said a deepening rift between Somalia’s federal government, the opposition, and several federal member states over the model for the 2026 elections — whether to adopt universal suffrage or retain the indirect clan-based system — now threatens to paralyze the country’s democratic transition.

The deadlock comes as Al-Shabab continues to make territorial gains, reclaiming areas previously captured by government forces in 2022 and 2023. According to ICG, political dysfunction, weak command structures, and an undertrained army have left Mogadishu unable to consolidate control in liberated territories.

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EU Urged to Mediate and Reassess Its Strategy

To restore stability, the ICG recommended that the European Union "press Mogadishu to reach an agreement with opposition leaders and federal member states over a framework for the 2026 polls,” through shuttle diplomacy in coordination with the African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN), and be prepared to mediate if required.

The report also urged Brussels to review the Somalia–EU Roadmap, signed in 2023, and develop a revised version addressing "underlying political barriers to stability.” This would include encouraging sustained dialogue between Mogadishu and Puntland, whose power-sharing disputes continue to weaken Somalia’s federal system.

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Funding Crisis for AU Mission

The ICG highlighted a severe funding shortfall for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), noting that only 27% of its 2025 budget has been secured due to donor fatigue and growing skepticism about the mission’s effectiveness.

Despite financial challenges, AUSSOM remains the main bulwark against Al-Shabab, but its sustainability is in question.

To complement AUSSOM’s work, ICG recommended that the EU revise its two missions in Somalia — a military training program and a civilian capacity-building mission — to help prepare Somali forces to eventually assume full security responsibilities.

The report added that EU assistance should extend beyond federal units to include state-level police and Darwish paramilitary forces, which are on the frontlines of the fight against Al-Shabab.

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Need for Long-Term Reform

The ICG emphasized that European training and support programs must target command-and-control weaknesses, logistical gaps, and coordination failures that continue to undermine Somali security institutions.

"The EU should support long-term institutional change if it wants Somalia to stabilize,” the report said. "Political divisiveness and weak governance structures remain among the most serious threats to national stability.”

The group urged the EU to focus on preventing electoral violence, meeting short-term security needs, and addressing the deeper political tensions that obstruct Somalia’s path toward statehood.

"Through a refreshed roadmap, the EU can help Somalia move out of crisis mode and build a sustainable system of governance,” the report concluded. "The war-weary Somali people deserve nothing less.”

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???? Source: International Crisis Group (ICG) Report, October 16 2025
✍️ By Dahir Abdulle Alasow | Waagacusub Media